AI and the Golden Goose

The following is the result of a prompt given to ChatGPT for an improved tax structure to reduce inequity and improve middle class and lower class living standards. I was listening to people talk about different economic policies and that it would be interesting to see what some of the AI platforms come up with. I also followed up with a prompt to critique the results as well.

Simulated Equitable Tax Structure for the U.S.

Goal:

To strengthen the middle class while reducing economic inequality.

Key Features:
Progressive Taxation → Higher earners contribute more, while lower-income earners receive relief.
Middle-Class Growth Incentives → Tax credits for homeownership, retirement, and investments.
Corporate Responsibility → Discourages stock buybacks, outsourcing, and extreme executive pay.
Sustainability & Fairness → Taxes wealth, capital gains, and pollution without stifling economic growth.


1. Individual Income Tax (Progressive Brackets)

Definition: Progressive Taxation – A tax system where the tax rate increases as income increases. Higher earners pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes.

Income RangeTax RateNotes
$0 – $20,0000%Tax-free to help low-income households.
$20,001 – $50,00010%Encourages upward mobility.
$50,001 – $100,00015%Moderate tax for the working middle class.
$100,001 – $250,00020%Still competitive but fairer for higher earners.
$250,001 – $500,00030%Begins steepening for wealthier individuals.
$500,001 – $1,000,00035%Higher contributions from top earners.
$1,000,001 – $5,000,00040%Ensuring fairness in high-income taxation.
$5,000,001+45%Top-tier earners pay the highest rate.

Middle-Class Credit → Earners between $50K – $150K receive a $2,000 refundable tax credit per year.
Wealth Cap Surtax → Individuals earning over $10M per year pay an additional 2% surtax.


2. Capital Gains & Investment Taxation

Definition: Capital Gains – The profit made from selling an asset, such as stocks, bonds, or real estate.
Definition: Long-Term vs. Short-Term GainsLong-term gains are from assets held for over one year, while short-term gains are from assets sold within one year.

Capital Gains TypeIncome BracketTax Rate
Long-term (over 1 year)<$50K0%
$50K – $250K10%
$250K – $1M20%
$1M+30%
Short-term (under 1 year)All incomesTaxed as regular income

Middle-Class Investment Incentive → Tax-free investment gains (up to $5,000/year) for those earning under $100K.
Stock Buyback Tax2% tax on corporate stock buybacks to encourage reinvestment.


3. Corporate Taxation

Definition: Corporate Tax – A tax imposed on the profits of businesses.

Corporate ProfitsTax Rate
$0 – $5M15%
$5M – $50M20%
$50M+25%

Living Wage Credit → Businesses paying workers a $60K+ median salary get a 5% tax credit.
Small Business Deduction → Companies earning under $2M in revenue get a 50% tax reduction.
Outsourcing Penalty10% surtax on profits from companies shifting jobs overseas.
Automation Tax → Companies replacing human workers with AI/robots pay a 1% wage-equivalent tax per displaced worker.

📊 Corporate Tax Rate vs. Current System
(Current U.S. corporate tax rate: 21% flat rate for all companies)

Company TypeCurrent TaxNew Tax
Small Businesses (<$5M)21%15%
Mid-size ($5M-$50M)21%20%
Large Corporations ($50M+)21%25%

4. Wealth & Estate Tax

Definition: Wealth Tax – A tax on the net worth of an individual, including cash, real estate, stocks, and other assets.

Net WorthAnnual Wealth Tax
$10M – $50M1%
$50M – $1B2%
$1B+3%

Middle-Class Wealth Builder → First $500,000 of home equity is tax-exempt in estate calculations.

📊 Estate Tax Comparison

Estate ValueCurrent U.S. RateNew Proposal
<$5M0%0%
$5M – $10M40%10%
$10M – $50M40%20%
$50M+40%30%

5. Payroll & Social Security Taxes

Definition: Payroll Tax – A tax employers and employees pay on wages to fund Social Security and Medicare.

Social Security Tax Cap Increase → Current cap ($160K) → New cap: $500K to strengthen Social Security.
Universal Basic Retirement (UBR) Credit → Workers earning under $50K get $1,500/year in refundable retirement contributions.
Employer 401(k) Matching Requirement → Businesses with 50+ employees must match at least 3% of contributions.


6. Consumption & Environmental Taxes

Definition: Consumption Tax – A tax imposed on goods and services purchased by consumers.

Tax TypeRatePurpose
Luxury Goods Tax10%On items over $50K (yachts, jets, etc.)
Carbon Tax$40/ton CO₂To drive clean energy adoption
Financial Transaction Tax0.1% (stocks), 0.5% (derivatives)To curb speculation

No Sales Tax Increase on Essentials → Groceries, medicine, and utilities remain tax-free.


7. Housing & Rent Relief

Definition: Rent Burden – A situation where 30%+ of income is spent on rent.

PolicyBenefit
Renters’ CreditUp to $2,500/year for renters spending 30%+ of income on rent.
Homeownership Tax Credit$10,000 credit for first-time buyers earning under $150K.
Vacant Property Tax2% annual tax on unoccupied investment properties.

Expected Outcomes

📊 Who Benefits?

Income GroupNet Tax ImpactKey Benefits
Lower Class (<$50K)↓ Tax Burden0% tax, rent relief, retirement credit
Middle Class ($50K – $150K)↓ Tax BurdenLower rates, homebuyer credit, investment growth
Upper Middle ($150K – $500K)Slight ↑Higher tax rates but benefits from deductions
Wealthy ($500K – $5M)↑ Tax BurdenProgressive taxation, capital gains tax
Ultra-Wealthy ($5M+)↑↑ Tax BurdenWealth tax, estate tax, corporate taxation

And now for the results of prompting it for a critique:

1. Potential Issues with the Income Tax Structure

Historical Context: The U.S. has experimented with high marginal tax rates before. In the 1950s-1960s, the top income tax rate was 91%, but loopholes and deductions meant the effective rate was much lower.

Possible Consequences:

Pros:

  • Protects low-income workers while keeping middle-class taxes reasonable.
  • Avoids excessive taxation of middle-class earners, unlike past high-tax models.

Cons:

  • Tax Avoidance & Evasion: Historically, high earners find ways to legally avoid taxes (e.g., offshore accounts, complex deductions).
  • Brain Drain Risk: If top earners feel overtaxed, they may move assets or businesses abroad.
  • Work Disincentives at High Incomes: Some professionals (doctors, entrepreneurs) may scale back work once they hit high brackets.

🔍 Mitigation Strategy:

  • Close loopholes and offshore tax havens with stricter enforcement.
  • Consider gradual bracket increases instead of large jumps (e.g., 30% → 32% → 35%, rather than 30% → 40%).

2. Issues with Capital Gains & Investment Taxation

Historical Context: The 1986 Tax Reform Act equalized capital gains and income tax rates. This led to reduced investment activity, slowing economic growth.

Possible Consequences:

Pros:

  • Encourages long-term investment by lowering capital gains taxes on middle-class investors.
  • Prevents excessive tax avoidance by ultra-wealthy stockholders.

Cons:

  • Reduced Investment at Higher Tax Rates: High capital gains taxes (30% for the wealthy) could discourage venture capital, real estate, and stock market investments.
  • Stock Market Volatility: Higher transaction taxes might reduce liquidity, making markets less stable.
  • Middle-Class Retirement Accounts Could Be Affected: Higher capital gains taxes might impact 401(k) and IRA growth indirectly.

🔍 Mitigation Strategy:

  • Keep capital gains taxes lower than income taxes to encourage investment.
  • Exempt retirement accounts (401k, IRAs) from capital gains tax increases.

3. Corporate Taxation: Balancing Fairness & Economic Growth

Historical Context:

  • The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, which encouraged corporate investment but also led to stock buybacks instead of wage increases.
  • In the 1980s, corporate tax rates were much higher (around 40%) but had many loopholes, reducing actual payments.

Possible Consequences:

Pros:

  • Higher taxes for large corporations ensure they contribute fairly.
  • Small businesses benefit from tax reductions, spurring entrepreneurship.

Cons:

  • Large Corporations May Relocate Abroad: A 25% tax rate might lead multinational companies to shift headquarters overseas (as seen in the 2010s with “tax inversions”).
  • Stock Buyback Tax Could Be Evaded: Companies could increase dividends or use indirect buyback methods.
  • Automation Tax Might Slow Innovation: AI and automation are crucial for growth—over-taxing them may discourage progress.

🔍 Mitigation Strategy:

  • Keep corporate taxes competitive (possibly 22-23% instead of 25%).
  • Tighten loopholes instead of outright banning buybacks.
  • Gradually phase in automation taxes only where jobs are fully eliminated.

4. Wealth & Estate Tax Issues

Historical Context:

  • The 2001 Bush Tax Cuts reduced the estate tax, benefiting wealthy families.
  • The 1930s-40s saw aggressive wealth taxes, which many rich families avoided through trusts and offshore holdings.

Possible Consequences:

Pros:

  • Taxes extreme wealth accumulation, reducing economic inequality.
  • Helps fund social programs without overburdening wages.

Cons:

  • Evasion Risk: Wealthy individuals use foundations, offshore trusts, and family funds to shield assets.
  • Unintended Impact on Illiquid Assets: Family farms or small businesses may struggle to pay estate taxes without selling assets.
  • Lower Charitable Giving: If ultra-wealthy individuals are taxed heavily, donations to philanthropy may decline.

🔍 Mitigation Strategy:

  • Create stronger estate tax enforcement to prevent evasion.
  • Exempt family farms/small businesses from immediate taxation if heirs continue operations.
  • Offer tax deductions for charitable giving to preserve philanthropy.

5. Payroll & Social Security Taxes: Long-Term Stability Issues

Historical Context:

  • Social Security has faced funding issues since the 1980s due to an aging population and longer life expectancy.
  • Past payroll tax increases (e.g., 1983 reform) helped stabilize Social Security but were politically difficult.

Possible Consequences:

Pros:

  • Raising the payroll tax cap to $500K strengthens Social Security.
  • UBR Credit boosts retirement savings for low-income workers.

Cons:

  • Payroll Taxes Still Hit the Middle Class Hardest: Payroll taxes are regressive—a higher cap helps, but middle-income workers still pay a lot.
  • Potential Backlash from High Earners: High-income individuals may shift to alternative income structures (LLCs, dividends, capital gains) to avoid payroll taxes.

🔍 Mitigation Strategy:

  • Phase in payroll tax changes gradually to reduce shock.
  • Encourage alternative funding for Social Security, such as financial transaction taxes.

6. Environmental & Consumption Taxes: Risk of Regressiveness

Historical Context:

  • Carbon taxes in Europe have worked, but often hurt low-income households the most (fuel, electricity prices rise).
  • The luxury tax in 1990 backfired, leading to job losses in the yacht-building industry.

Possible Consequences:

Pros:

  • A carbon tax encourages cleaner energy use.
  • Luxury tax targets the ultra-rich, not necessities.

Cons:

  • Higher energy costs for middle-class households (heating, transportation).
  • Luxury taxes may hurt domestic industries (e.g., yacht, jewelry, or high-end car manufacturing).

🔍 Mitigation Strategy:

  • Use carbon tax revenue to subsidize clean energy for low-income households.
  • Apply luxury taxes to imported goods to avoid harming domestic manufacturers.

Final Evaluation: Strengths & Weaknesses

✅ Strengths:

✔️ Focuses on middle-class growth with tax credits & investment incentives.
✔️ Encourages corporate responsibility without crushing businesses.
✔️ Targets ultra-wealthy loopholes while keeping entrepreneurship viable.

❌ Weaknesses & Fixes:

Risk of tax evasion (offshoring, loopholes).
🔍 Fix: Stronger IRS enforcement, closing loopholes, and international tax cooperation.

Possible investment slowdown from high capital gains taxes.
🔍 Fix: Keep capital gains tax below income tax rates, exempt retirement funds.

Corporate tax hikes may push businesses abroad.
🔍 Fix: Keep tax rates globally competitive (~22%) while closing loopholes.

Bottom Line:

This plan is economically sound with the right balance of fairness & growth, but it needs refinements to prevent evasion, economic slowdowns, and unintended burdens on the middle class.